In 1900 John Elfreth Watkins, Jr. wrote an article for The Ladies Home Journal that attempted to predict “What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years.” He tapped some of America’s most educated minds at that time, men from the country’s greatest institutions of science and learning, to forecast the 20th century.

His research led to 29 predictions, some of which proved more entertaining than accurate. For instance, he predicted that, “there will be no C, X or Q in our modern alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary.” If only.

However, Watkins also got a few things right. He wrote about man’s ability to see around the world through cameras and screens, express trains that traveled at 150 miles per hour and “air-ships” used by scientist to observe the earth above the heavens.

Watkins admitted that some of these prophecies seemed strange, almost impossible, but we now know that some of these ideas have come to life through inventors who believed in them. A number of predictions included in Watkins’ piece have manifested themselves in technologies that are fundamental to the modern world.

More than a century later, America continues to be at the forefront of innovation and technological advances. Names such as Alexander Graham Bell and the Wright brothers are embedded in the history books. They were great American inventors who paved the way for the inventors that founded the current list of America’s great companies.

Other inventors have yet to take their places in our history books for their technological advances. They have watched and learned from the inventors before them. And with modest beginnings, they believe that someday their ideas will improve lives, simplify processes and make an imprint on society.

But tomorrow’s inventors may face a new landscape to protect their ideas. Congress is currently considering legislation that would change patent law in the United States.

When our country was formed, the Founding Fathers noted the importance of patents, giving Congress the authority, “to promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries.”

Congress established a patent system that, today, is very different from most other countries. In the United States, the patent is given not to the first person to file the patent, but to the person who first conceives an invention and then diligently works to reduce the idea to practice.

However, Congress is considering legislation, called the America Invents Act, that would change this system. Instead of giving a patent to the first person to conceive of an invention, the change to the law that would give patents to the first person to file a patent.

The change is being promoted mostly by large corporations with independent inventors and entrepreneurs on the other side. While the ultimate effect of this change in the law is uncertain, there is the potential to devastate innovation in this country. A first to file system would give an advantage to large companies with dozens of highly-paid lawyers, and at the same time provide a perverse incentive for entrepreneurs to commit scarce resources to securing patents rather than putting products in the marketplace.

Small business advocate groups pointed out in a two-page letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on February 23, 2011, that the Senate version of the legislation “disrupts the unique American start-up ecosystem that has led to America’s standing as the global innovation leader – the ecosystem that is vital to our businesses.”

We recognize and value the need for patent reform. We understand the tremendous burden on the Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) to review and grant patents. Patent reform should seek to limit that burden and speed up processing but not sacrifice innovation in the process.
America has led the world in innovation, in part, because our system provides a level playing field. A small inventor working out of his or her garage can create and profit from a patented invention just as surely as a large corporation with a team of scientists at its disposal. For more than 200 years, our current patent law has demonstrated an ability to foster innovation and grow small businesses.

When Watkins looked 100 years ahead and tried to predict what new inventions might change our world, he imagined a world that must have seemed impossible to his readers. Yet, Watkins knew that America’s spirit of innovation had always driven inventors to make their impossible visions a reality.

That spirit has persisted because of America’s patent system. We should be careful not to tinker with it, or we risk creating a disincentive for the next generation of inventors.